Forecasting the Future

I have seen and heard about serial connections running at 10G, 12G, 16G, 20G, and 40G in the past year or so, some over copper. It is clear that this march up the frequency curve will be with us for the foreseeable future, and harbors some difficult engineering problems.

John Black (of Motorola fame, and one of the founders of OpenSystems Media) and I have talked about these issues regularly. Even from the beginning, John has been saying that these serial connections will all have to be point-to-point connections to make the problems solvable. And at some point, we have to go optical. But, I see amazing new developments that keep putting that optical transition off into the future. We have members who have been doing FDDI and reflective memory with optics for many years. Now, we have optical PCI Express.

I seem to be good at predicting things that have already happened…